Yet another week of the NFL season with injuries that drastically changed the course of games and the landscape of fantasy football defenses. The Texans lost both C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins to injuries against the Jets, the Raiders lost Josh Jacobs to a knee injury against the Vikings, and the Chargers lost Justin Herbert to a fractured finger against the Broncos.
Naturally, all three of those defenses finished inside the top five in fantasy scoring on the week, which should be a clear reminder to us that the outlook of fantasy defenses can change in massive ways in just one week. With all four of the aforementioned players looking unlikely to play in Week 15, we now have to adjust how we view their opponents in ways that data can’t highlight for us.
Which is a good reminder of how to use the rankings below. While you will see the BOD ranking there next to each team, it’s important to understand that those rankings are season-long metrics. You may be shocked to see teams like Jacksonville so high but their overall body of work is strong. When I calculate the weekly rankings, I also factor in the last six weeks of defensive performance for each team as well as the last month of fantasy points allowed by their opponent. The hope is to balance out what we’ve seen throughout the season with what we’re seeing over recent weeks.
That balance is important because, now that we’ve entered the fantasy football playoffs, we can’t cling too tightly to what’s worked for us up until now. It might be great that you’ve had a “set it and forget it” defense for a month, but if they’re suddenly in a bad spot, it makes no sense to hold onto them. If you lose this week, it’s over, so we always want to maximize our chances of putting up the highest scoring for this week, even if that means cutting a defense that helped us get here.
BOD Formula and Philosophy
Just a quick reminder of the BOD formula:
(Pressure Rate) + (Knockdowns) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score) + (Explosive Plays Allowed Per Game x2)
It’s important to clarify that the BOD rankings ARE NOT to be treated as weekly rankings. BOD is meant to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Special shoutout to Arjun Menon, who calculates the explosive plays per game formula. You can check him out on Twitter here.
Season-Long Accuracy
Throughout the season I’ll keep track of how many top 10 defenses we correctly predicted. I know it’s not quite marking down if I nailed the number one defense each week or the number two, but it’s the most logical way I can think of to keep track of how often a defense I predicted would be a good play actually wound up being a good play. I know we always want the top defense, but I think, more often than not, if we get one of the ten performing defenses of the week, we’re not mad at the result.
SEASON RECORD FOR TOP 10 PREDICTIONS: 73-of-140 (52.3%)
So how do things stack up for Week 15?
Well, our ride with the Miami Dolphins defense might be over. After scoring 14 points per game over the last month, the Dolphins have been a steady presence inside tier one and will be again for their showdown this weekend against the Jets. Then they end their season with games against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills and may no longer be a fantasy starter on defense for us. Yet, we have one more week. The Jets and Zach Wilson showed up in a soggy mess last week against the Texans, and we have to credit Wilson for looking good. However, it’s also one game against a Texans team that was without Tank Dell and lost Nico Collins and C.J. Stroud to injury in the game. The Dolphins are going to score points and put pressure on Wilson to make plays against a defense that ranks first in knockdowns (which is sacks plus QB hits), second in the NFL in pressure rate, fourth in explosive play rate allowed, and sixth in opponent’s scoring rate. I think it’s going to be a much longer day at the office for Wilson on Sunday.
The Chiefs may be the center of the NFL world for the way they not so graciously handled their loss last week on a blatant offsides from Kadarius Toney; however, I think they’ll be at the center of discussion next week after they take out all their frustrations on the Patriots. While the Chiefs did lose to Buffalo, their defense made things incredibly hard on an offense that had been clicking since changing offensive coordinators. The Chiefs currently rank third in pressure rate, third in opponent’s scoring rate, sixth in knockdowns, and 10th in explosive play rate allowed. That’s a tall task for Bailey Zappe and a Patriots offense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. If Rhamondre Stevenson is out again, as expected, I don’t see the Patriots moving the ball too well on Sunday.
After two straight double-digit point weeks, the Falcons put up just one point against the Bucs, which wasn’t unexpected since the Bucs are not a great fantasy matchup for opposing defenses. But do you know which team is? The Carolina Panthers, who give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month at 14.8 points per game. This play is more about that than a Falcons defense that ranks 10th in pressure rate and 11th in explosive play rate allowed but is below average in most of the other metrics we care about. They scored 12 defensive points against the Panthers in Week 1, and I think we can expect a similar total here in Week 15.
Sign up to stream the NFL Holiday Exclusive between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers, only on Peaco*ck, Saturday, Dec. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Visit Peaco*ckTV.com/NFL for more details.
The Jaguars are heading in the wrong direction, and the Ravens can smell the AFC’s number one seed if they close the season by handling their business. With Trevor Lawrence banged up last Sunday, the Jaguars were held under 300 total yards, turned the ball over four times, and allowed four sacks. Even with Lawrence healthy, the Jaguars offense ranks 21st in turnover rate and 21st in sacks allowed, and they’ve given up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses in the last two games without Christian Kirk (yes, I know that’s a very small sample size). They now get a Ravens defense that leads the NFL in sacks, is first in explosive play rate allowed, and is fourth in opponents’ scoring rate. With Kirk out for the season and Lawrence likely still feeling that ankle injury, I think the Ravens can put up a strong showing here.
This 49ers defense is incredibly hard to bench of late, averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They now rank first in turnover rate, third in knockdowns per game, and fifth in opponent’s scoring rate. However, over the last month, with Kyler Murray back under center, the Cardinals give up the 10th-FEWEST fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they have not been a good matchup. Now, I don’t think the Cardinals’ offense is talented enough to score lots of points here, and I think this 49ers defense is really solid, so you’re obviously starting them, but I’m just explaining why they’re not ranked first or second like many might expect.
Give the gift of Rotoworld Draft Guides with our exclusive holiday Bundle offer. Unlock hundreds of player profiles, rankings, mocks, and more for the 2024 football, baseball, and basketball seasons. Use code HOLIDAY2023 at checkout to receive 25% off and a $10 Fanatics gift card. Click here to get started!
The Steelers didn’t deliver on Thursday night against the Patriots and took a really bad loss. However, they did hold New England to 21 points and 300 total yards while forcing one turnover and sacking Bailey Zappe twice, which led to a decent enough fantasy day. Now they get a Colts offense that scored just 14 points against the Bengals while turning the ball over twice and allowing three sacks. This Steelers defense still ranks fifth in turnover rate, 11th in opponent’s scoring rate and 13th in in pressure rate, so they’re a fringe top-10 defense going against an offense that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses since Jonathan Taylor got hurt again and was allowing the 11th-most fantasy points in the last month, even with Taylor healthy.
As we discussed above, we had yet another quarterback injury last week when Justin Herbert fractured a finger on his throwing hand. With him looking unlikely to play for a couple of weeks, that puts the Raiders in a surprisingly solid position for Week 15 since Easton Stick looked, well, not like an NFL quarterback last week. With Austin Ekeler not his formerly explosive self and the Chargers struggling to find any receiver to replace Mike Williams, this is simply not a dangerous offense anymore. The Raiders may be a middle-of-the-road fantasy defense in most metrics, but they scored 11 points against a banged-up Vikings defense in Week 15 and are averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, so perhaps they can push towards double-digits again.
On the other side of things, the Chargers also look like a solid play going up against a Raiders team that will likely be without Josh Jacobs after he injured his knee on Sunday, which makes it unlikely he’s able to play on a short week with a Thursday night game. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell remains underwhelming, and the Raiders have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Without Jacobs, it will be even harder for them to consistently move the ball, and the Chargers can dedicate even more attention to taking away Davante Adams.
The Bengals defense has not been tremendous of late, averaging just 5.5 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They do rank seventh in turnover rate and 11th in knockdowns per game, but they allow a lot of big plays with the worst explosive play rate allowed in the NFL. However, this Vikings offense has been a mess lately, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game over the last month at 11.7 points per game. We have no idea who their starting quarterback will be in Week 15, Alexander Mattison looks unlikely to play, and Justin Jefferson should be considered questionable after taking a massive hit and suffering internal injuries. I know Kevin O’Connell said Jefferson was trending towards playing, but given how long he sat out to make sure his hamstring was 100%, I’m skeptical of Jefferson coming back in what’s shaping up to be a lost season for the Vikings. If he does play, I might move Cincinnati down into tier three.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Don’t miss Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry every weekday at noon ET LIVE on Peaco*ck and the Rotoworld Football Show podcast on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays.
This Browns and Bears game features two surprisingly feisty teams whose offenses are both trending up. The Browns continue to win games and push for a playoff spot even with Joe Flacco at quarterback, while this Bears defense has tightened the clamps in recent weeks and enjoyed Justin Fields’ return as an explosive playmaker. Over the last six weeks, the Browns defense is eighth in fantasy points per game and the Bears defense is 10th. I have the Browns ranked higher here because, even with as great as Fields has been, his supporting cast aside from DJ Moore is poor, the Bears rank 27th in sacks allowed, and 29th in turnover rate. That could be a problem against a Browns defense that figures to get Denzel Ward back and ranks first in opponent’s scoring rate, fourth in pressure rate, and ninth in knockdowns per game. Still, over the last month, Chicago is giving up just the 18th-most fantasy points to opposing defenses, so they’re not the smash spot they used to be.
Yet, the Bears defense also remains a solid play. Now, Joe Flacco is a veteran quarterback who makes strong, decisive throws and far fewer mistakes than somebody like Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so it’s not as great of a matchup for fantasy defenses, but he’s also thrown a pick in each game he’s started and doesn’t have the mobility to escape pressure. This Bears defense now ranks seventh in explosive play rate allowed and eighth in turnover rate. Over their last four games, they’ve forced 11 turnovers and notched 11 sacks while winning three of four games. They should make things hard on Flacco and the Browns, especially with RT Dawand Jones out for Cleveland.
I know it may be weird to have the Broncos this high, but they’ve averaged 10.4 fantasy points over the last six weeks, and the Lions have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. These are two teams going in opposite directions, and the Broncos are a better play than we might have expected.
The Rams are another team we’re considering playing due to matchup. Over the last six weeks, they’re averaging just 5.5 points per game. They rank 24th in pressure rate, 26th in opponent’s scoring rate, and 30th in turnover rate. However, they are facing a Commanders team that has given up the most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month at 17 per game. The Commanders may also be without Brian Robinson, who sprained his ankle right before their bye week. It’s hard for me to really trust this Rams defense, so I can’t move them higher than this, but the matchup is certainly juicy.
The Texans defense dropped the ball against the Jets, finishing with just five points; however, a lot of that had to do with injuries on the offensive side that led to the team gaining just 135 total yards and running just 52 plays. If C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are both out in Week 15 then we can expect the offense to put the defense in poor positions again, but the Titans have been an offense we want to target in fantasy, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defense over the last month. The Texans could really use this win if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive, so I expect DeMeco Ryans to have this team ready to go, but their offensive injuries make me a little less interested in this play.
However, the Texans’ offensive injuries make me a little bit interested in this Titans defense. Now, this is not a good defense and their best player, Jeffrey Simmons, is likely out so I really wouldn’t consider this in shallower leagues; yet, if C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins miss Week 15, with Tank Dell already out, there simply isn’t enough talent on the Texans offense to make me nervous about them putting up huge point totals.
The Saints had not delivered recently, scoring just six combined fantasy points against the Vikings, Falcons, and Lions. However, that’s nothing that the Panthers can’t cure, and the Saints put up 18 points on Sunday. Things won’t be as easy against Tommy Cutlets and the Giants, since it’s blatantly apparent that the Giants’ undrafted rookie quarterback has improved in every start and the Giants are now just the 10th-best matchup for fantasy defenses over the last month after being a top five matchup for much of the season. DeVito is a threat on the ground and against the Packers he took no sacks and didn’t turn the ball over once. This Saints defense ranks 22nd in pressure rate and 31st in knockdowns, so I don’t really trust them to hound DeVito much in the backfield, which I think lowers their ceiling to more of a deep-league play this week.
It’s important to keep the context of what the Bengals are doing in mind. Jake Browning as looked great of late, but the Jaguars and Colts have two really poor secondaries. I expect things to be a bit harder against a Vikings defense that has averaged nine fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. This Vikings defense is slightly above average on the season and the Bengals still have lots of playmakers, so I don’t love this spot, but I could see it being an option in deeper formats.
We generally wouldn’t want to play the Jets against the Dolphins, even with the Jets defense as strong as it is, but keep an eye on Tyreek Hill’s ankle during the week. He did come back and play on Sunday, but he was clearly given something to manage the pain at halftime and as somebody who has more ankle injuries than I can count, I can confirm that his ankle will swell up considerably once it’s out of his shoes/gear and is no longer under the heavy stress of running. If Hill is out or limited at all, that drastically changes this Dolphins’ offense as they looked feeble without him against the Titans on Monday night. Miami scored two offensive touchdowns in the game and both of them were gifted to them by Titans turnovers inside their own 20 yard line. I’m not saying the Jets would be a great play if Hill is banged up, but they’d certainly be a better one.
As we discussed in past weeks, the Colts defense was the surprise of the last month, scoring 64 total points in four weeks; however, those were games against the Panthers, Patriots, Bucs, and Titans. The Colts had just 43 combined points in their eight prior games and then scored just five points last week against the Bengals. This is a defense that has relied a lot on defense/special teams touchdowns and sacks, where they rank tied for third in the NFL. They’re also 12th in turnover rate but 26th in opponent’s scoring rate and 18th in explosive play rate allowed. I don’t believe their true talent is as a top 10 fantasy defense and while this Steelers offense that lacks much explosive playmaking ability, they also turn the ball over less than any team in the NFL and allow the eighth-fewest sacks, so it’s hard for fantasy defenses to put up high ceiling games against them.
Just like last week when the Bills played the Chiefs, this Bills and Cowboys showdown features two defenses that we normally like to play in matchups that we don’t like. The Bills defense scored seven fantasy points on Sunday, and the Chiefs scored five, and I expect something similar to that this weekend. Over the last month, the Cowboys allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses, but the Bills allow the fifth-fewest. You might look at what the Cowboys did against the Eagles and think that they can do the same against the Bills, but it’s important to note that the Bills allow the fewest sacks in the NFL, while the Eagles rank 20th with 15 more sacks allowed on the season. The Eagles and Bills both turn the ball over too much, which means the Cowboys could make a big play in the turnover game, but this is a slightly worse matchup for Dallas as a fantasy defense than they had last week.
I don’t feel comfortable starting any of these defenses in any format.
As I mentioned above, I will update and repost this article on Sunday morning in case there are any changes with injuries or weather reports, etc. Until then, good luck to all this week!
